Results
Early 21st Century (2011-2040)
Mid 21st Century (2041-2070)
Late 21st Century (2071-2100)
Time Series (spaghetti plot)Last Updated: 23 Feb 2012
Datasets
To date, the following CMIP5 models have been acquired.
(1) CanESM2
(2) CNRM CM5
(3) CSIRO MK3.60
(4) GISS E2R
(5) INMCM4
(6) IPSL CM5A LR
(7) IPSL CM5A MR
(8) MIROC 5
(9) MIROC ESM
(10) MIROC ESM CHEM
(11) MPI ESM LR
(12) MRI CGCM3
(13) NorESM1 M
(14) BCC CSM1
(15) CCSM4
(16) GFDL-CM3
(17) GFDL-ESM2M
(18) HadGEM2-ES
(19) HadGEM2-CC
(20) FGOALS-G2
Brief Description of Analysis
Three time periods are considered here in additional to historical model runs using historical emissions+solar/volcanic forcing (thru 2005)
(1) Early 21st century (2011-2040)
(2) Mid 21st century (2041-2070)
(3) Late 21st century (2071-2100)
We examined model output forced by three representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5. Note that a handful of the models do not currently have output for experiment RCP6.0.
Horizontal resolution of model output varies across GCM; for tractable reasons, output has been regridded to a common 2-degree horizontal resolution grid. We aggregate differences over the
domain 42-50N, 110-125W covering OR, WA, ID and western Montana.
In addition, a few of the plots show historical observations (different from historical models). Historical observations are spatially aggregated data from PRISM covering the PNW domain from 1950-2010.
Types of plots
1. Different Plots: differences between variables for the three different time periods and RCP are taken relative to the historical baseline climate 1951-2000 for four climatological seasons and annual conditions. Individual model results are shown by +, with statistically significant differences (through t-test) represented as large +. The ensemble, or multimodel mean is provided by the circle, with large circles representative statistical significance.
2. Difference Maps: Plotted are ensemble mean changes from historical conditions. Gray shading denotes regions where less than 75% of the models agreed on the direction of change and are considered to have less robust projections.
3. Time Series Plots: Annualized time series of temperature or precipitation relative to historical baseline conditions for an ensemble of models for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To add clarity, all time series have been smoothed using a 11-year moving window. The shaded envelop shows the 20-80th percentile of data across the suite of models. The black line in each plots shows the observed smoothed time series from PRISM.
Results
Early 21st Century (2011-2040)
Mid 21st Century (2041-2070)
Late 21st Century (2071-2100)
Time Series (spaghetti plot)
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Downscaled Simulations
University of Idaho, Dr. John Abatzoglou and Dr. Katherine Hegewisch
